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The invisible elephant: learning to predict the future with long-term thinking/看不见的大象:学会用长远思维预测未来

$32.00
ISBN:
9787500178187
Transliterated Title:
Kan bu jian de da xiang : xue hui yong chang yuan si wei yu ce wei lai
Author:
( Yi ) Lu xi ya nuo · Ka nuo wa zhu /(意)卢西亚诺·卡诺瓦著
Publisher:
Zhong yi chu ban she/中译出版社
Publish Date:
2024.05
Page:
300
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"The Invisible Elephant" is a popular cognitive psychology book about how we understand complex and long-term events. "Invisible elephant" in this book refers to long-term events such as "global warming", as well as to the irrational and impulsive aspects of our thinking. Combining behavioral science with economics, psychology, and pop culture, this book illuminates the psychological fallacies and biases that force us to be uncertain about the future and helps us reverse their effects. This book introduces psychological biases such as cognitive traps, thinking shortcuts, uncertainty management, and perceptions of futility, and proposes how to deal with long-term major events. Currently, the world is undergoing major changes unseen in a century. In the face of sudden "black swan" and "grey rhino" events, we also have to face the "invisible elephant". Only in this way can we respond to complex events.

《看不见的大象》是一本关于让我们如何认识复杂及长远事件的认知心理学大众读物。“看不见的大象”在本书中指“全球变暖”等长远事件,也指我们思维中的不理智、冲动的方面。本书将行为科学与经济学、心理学和流行文化相结合,阐述了迫使我们对未来充满不确定性的心理谬误和偏见,帮助我们扭转其影响。本书介绍了认知陷阱、思维捷径、不确定性管理、无用性感知等心理偏见,并提出如何应对长远的重大事件。当前,世界处于百年未有之大变局,面对突如其来的“黑天鹅”“灰犀牛”事件,我们也要面对“看不见的大象”,只有这样,我们才能在应对复杂事件