This book objectively introduces the operating logic of the Chinese economy with the help of cutting-edge research in international economics and combined with China's real situation, hoping to enhance readers' confidence in the future of the Chinese economy. The author especially spent a lot of space to refute the mainstream narrative of "China's over-investment theory" and pointed out the errors in data and models such as China's low household income, low consumption, and excessive real estate. The author believes that China's urbanization stage and household consumption preferences determine the current high savings situation, infrastructure investment is very successful, the local debt crisis is controllable, real estate investment is generally moderate but the distribution is unbalanced, and China has successfully shifted from real estate and infrastructure investment to commercial investment, and will not encounter risks similar to Japan.
本书借助国际经济学前沿研究, 结合中国真实情况, 客观地介绍了中国经济的运行逻辑, 寄望于增强读者对中国经济未来的信心。作者尤其花了较多篇幅来驳斥“中国过度投资论”的主流叙事, 并指出了中国家庭收入低、消费低、房地产过度等数据和模型的错误。作者认为, 中国的城市化阶段和家庭消费偏好决定了当前高储蓄的现状, 基础设施投资非常成功, 地方债务危机可控, 房地产投资总体适中但分布失衡, 而且中国已经成功从房地产和基础设施投资转向商业投资, 也不会遭遇类似日本的风险。
本书借助国际经济学前沿研究, 结合中国真实情况, 客观地介绍了中国经济的运行逻辑, 寄望于增强读者对中国经济未来的信心。作者尤其花了较多篇幅来驳斥“中国过度投资论”的主流叙事, 并指出了中国家庭收入低、消费低、房地产过度等数据和模型的错误。作者认为, 中国的城市化阶段和家庭消费偏好决定了当前高储蓄的现状, 基础设施投资非常成功, 地方债务危机可控, 房地产投资总体适中但分布失衡, 而且中国已经成功从房地产和基础设施投资转向商业投资, 也不会遭遇类似日本的风险。
