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Turning point in history/历史的拐点

$30.00
ISBN:
9787521782691
Transliterated Title:
Li shi de guai dian
Author:
Yan xue tong /阎学通
Publisher:
Zhong xin chu ban ji tuan/中信出版集团
Publish Date:
2025.09
Page:
248 p.
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This book is a work predicting international political trends for the next decade. Based on the evolution of international politics since 2013, the author uses dynamic forecasting methods to analyze the world order under the wave of anti-globalization from 2025 to 2035. The study focuses on moral realism, an original Chinese theory of international relations, and its systematic interpretation. It analyzes the new normal (2025-2029) that will emerge in the short term, including the rise and fall of great power power, the adjustment of strategic relations, and the reshaping of the international order. It also predicts the new stable state (2030-2035) that may be achieved in the long term through the construction of a multipolar world cooperation paradigm. Furthermore, it combines this with China's practice of expanding opening up to demonstrate the strategic significance of adhering to international cooperation for China's rise amidst the retreat of globalization.

本书是一部预测未来十年国际政治趋势的作品。作者以2013年以来国际政治的演变为基础,使用动态预测方法剖析了2025-2035年逆全球化浪潮下的世界格局。研究聚焦道义现实主义这一中国原创国际关系理论及其体系化阐释,分析短期之内大国实力消长、战略关系调整及国际秩序重塑即将形成的新常态(2025-2029),预测长期多极化世界合作范式构建可能达成的新稳态(2030-2035),进而结合中国扩大开放的实践,论证在全球化退潮中坚持国际合作对崛起的战略意义。