Geoeconomics/地缘经济

Currently, China is facing unprecedented geoeconomic challenges. The 2025 Government Work Report points out that "the world is undergoing accelerated changes, and the external environment is becoming more complex and severe, which may have a greater impact on my country's trade, technology, and other fields. Insufficient global economic growth momentum, unilateralism and protectionism are intensifying, the multilateral trading system is being obstructed, tariff barriers are increasing, impacting the stability of global industrial and supply chains and hindering the international economic cycle." Faced with the deepening adverse effects of changes in the external environment, a systemic and strategic perspective is needed for analysis. The geoeconomics discussed in this book refers to the use of economic means to achieve economic and non-economic goals. This geoeconomic competition has a profound impact on the way the global economy operates. On the one hand, anti-globalization leads to increased supply constraints, damaging global economic efficiency. On the other hand, fiscal expansion is driving demand, increasing the importance of real assets, and bringing pressure for de-financialization. Meanwhile, against this backdrop, the role of economies of scale is further enhanced. China possesses unique scale advantages in strategic areas such as green industries and artificial intelligence, and is expected to play a key role in the restructuring of the global geoeconomic landscape.

当前，中国正面临前所未有的地缘经济挑战。2025年的《政府工作报告》指出，“世界百年变局加速演进，外部环境更趋复杂严峻，可能对我国贸易、科技等领域造成更大冲击。世界经济增长动能不足，单边主义、保护主义加剧，多边贸易体制受阻，关税壁垒增多，冲击全球产业链供应链稳定，对国际经济循环造成阻碍”。面对外部环境变化带来的不利影响加深，需要从系统性和战略性的视角进行分析。本书所讨论的地缘经济，是指使用经济手段来实现经济目标和非经济目标。这种地缘经济竞争对全球经济运行方式带来深刻冲击。一方面，逆全球化导致供给约束增加，损害了全球经济效率。另一方面，财政扩张拉动需求，实体资产的重要性上升，带来去金融化压力。同时，在这一背景下，规模经济的作用进一步提升，中国在绿色产业和人工智能等战略领域具备独特的规模优势，有望在全球地缘经济重构中发挥关键作用。