This book, the culmination of nearly a decade of reflection and writing by Professor Gao Bai of the Department of Sociology at Duke University, uses a highly interdisciplinary analytical framework to dissect the essence of the "Great Transformation," revealing the challenges faced by various countries in the two synchronized phases of the three major historical cycles of globalization, hegemonic shifts, and technological revolutions, as well as the historical contemporaneity and common characteristics of their responses. The theoretical framework of this book has evolved over 35 years. During the height of the US-Japan trade war in the 1980s and 90s, the author incorporated Karl Polanyi's analysis of the historical macro-variant of capitalism in the 1930s—the shift from releasing market forces to protecting society—into his theoretical framework. In later writings, he extended this concept to the analysis of postwar capitalism, conceptualizing it as the "pendulum motion of globalization," viewing it as a historical driving force, on par with the hegemonic shift cycle, leading to profound changes in the international economic order and domestic political economy.
美国杜克大学社会学系教授高柏近十年思考与写作的 结晶，以高度跨学科的分析框架，剖析“大变局”的实质，揭示各国在全球化钟摆运动、霸权更迭和科技革命这三大历史长周期的两次同频共振中面临的挑战及其应对的历史同时代性和共同特征。本书的理论框架进化长达35年之久。作者在上世纪八九十年代日美贸易战最激烈的阶段，将卡尔•波兰尼所揭示的20世纪30年代资本主义由释放市场力量转向保护社会这一历史宏观变量纳入其理论框架，并在后来的写作中将其扩展到对战后资本主义的分析，概念化为“全球化的钟摆运动”，把它作为与霸权更迭周期并重的，导致国际经济秩序与国内政治经济发生深刻变化的历史驱动力。
美国杜克大学社会学系教授高柏近十年思考与写作的 结晶，以高度跨学科的分析框架，剖析“大变局”的实质，揭示各国在全球化钟摆运动、霸权更迭和科技革命这三大历史长周期的两次同频共振中面临的挑战及其应对的历史同时代性和共同特征。本书的理论框架进化长达35年之久。作者在上世纪八九十年代日美贸易战最激烈的阶段，将卡尔•波兰尼所揭示的20世纪30年代资本主义由释放市场力量转向保护社会这一历史宏观变量纳入其理论框架，并在后来的写作中将其扩展到对战后资本主义的分析，概念化为“全球化的钟摆运动”，把它作为与霸权更迭周期并重的，导致国际经济秩序与国内政治经济发生深刻变化的历史驱动力。
