This book first analyzes the long-term trend of TFP growth and its determination of the natural rate of interest (the rate of return on capital for representative firms in economic equilibrium). It points out that before the advent of a new technological revolution, there is a lack of factors that can increase the natural rate of interest, while various factors can inhibit it, leading to a decline in the natural rate of interest. Secondly, it introduces the concept of the "rate of return trap": due to a slowdown in broad technological progress, or various factors in the economy that inhibit TFP growth and the natural rate of interest, they fall to very low levels, resulting in a low rate of return on capital in reality. This makes the economy prone to balance sheet recessions, and firms will invest overseas, causing technology spillover and leading to a "catch-up phase." The book then uses the United States, Japan, and South Korea as examples to further illustrate this.
本书首先分析了TFP增速的长期趋势, 以及对自然利率 (经济均衡时代表性企业的资本回报率) 的决定。指出在新科技革命来临之前, 缺乏能够提升自然利率的因素, 同时有各种因素会对自然利率造成抑制作用, 导致自然利率下降。其次提出“资本回报率陷阱”的概念: 由于广义技术进步放缓, 或经济中的各类因素抑制TFP增速和自然利率, 导致它们下降至很低的水平, 使现实中的资本回报率也处于较低水平。这使经济容易出现资产负债表衰退, 并且企业会出海投资, 造成本国技术外溢, 陷入“被追赶阶段”。并以美国、日本、韩国为例分
本书首先分析了TFP增速的长期趋势, 以及对自然利率 (经济均衡时代表性企业的资本回报率) 的决定。指出在新科技革命来临之前, 缺乏能够提升自然利率的因素, 同时有各种因素会对自然利率造成抑制作用, 导致自然利率下降。其次提出“资本回报率陷阱”的概念: 由于广义技术进步放缓, 或经济中的各类因素抑制TFP增速和自然利率, 导致它们下降至很低的水平, 使现实中的资本回报率也处于较低水平。这使经济容易出现资产负债表衰退, 并且企业会出海投资, 造成本国技术外溢, 陷入“被追赶阶段”。并以美国、日本、韩国为例分
